UPDATED: November Visa Bulletin Shows Grim News for EB-2 Indian Nationals
October 9, 2014
The Department of State’s November Bulletin, released today, now explains why the State Department warned to expect retrogression for Indian nationals in the employment based second preference category as early as November. Still, a 3.5 year backward movement this month is concerning. The November Visa Bulletin shows only nominal advancement of the cutoff dates in all of the other employment-based categories except for the third preference category, where there is a welcome 8 month leap forward for Chinese and “all other” nationals. We are counting on our administration to follow through on its promise for executive action relief after the mid-term Congressional elections.
EB1 - all still “CURRENT”
All others – still “CURRENT”
China – advances 3 weeks to December 8, 2009
India – retrogresses 3.5 years to February 15, 2005
Mexico – still “CURRENT”
Philippines – still “CURRENT”
All others – advances 8 months to June 1, 2012
China – advances 8 months to January 1, 2010
India – remaining fairly stagnant these last two months; advances one week to November 22, 2003
Mexico –June 1, 2012
Philippines – June 1, 2012
*Updated October 21, 2014 to reflect Department of State’s number crunching guru Charlie Oppenheim’s recent explanations to our trade association, AILA, through his monthly “Check in With Charlie” series, as to his reasoning in cutting off visa numbers, and providing us with a glimpse into what we may expect moving forward
EB-2 India Retrogression
Nothing additional to WSM’s original posting – Charlie predicts that there will be no forward movement in this category for the foreseeable future.
EB-5 China became current at the start of the new fiscal year in October, but as Charlie predicted last month, it will at some point become necessary to establish a cut-off date for EB-5 China, possibly as early as May 2015. Later this week, on October 23, Charlie will be speaking more on this topic in SF and will have more to report.
EB-3 China "Downgrades"
As noted in our sum up, the cut-off date for EB-2 China is December 8, 2009, approximately three weeks earlier than the cut-off date for EB-3 China, which is January 1, 2010. Charlie predicts that a likely cut-off for EB-2 China earlier than EB-3 China for a period of a few months, and that this is likely to prompt those with priority dates close to or within the EB-3 cut-off to file I-140s in the EB-3 category. Of course, Charlie predicts that after a few months increased demand for EB-3 China will require a correction to that cut-off date.
Charlie predicts EB-2 India will remain at a stale mate, though EB-2 China is expected to progress by three to five weeks per month. There should be rapid advancement for EB-3 China for the next few months. EB-3 India may move forward one week per month. EB-3 Mexico should remain at the worldwide cut-off. EB-3 Philippines may require a roll-back later in the fiscal year should demand increase dramatically.
Unused Visa Numbers
Charlie said it would require Congressional action to recapture the approximately 220,000 family and employment-based visas that have gone unused. WSM won’t hold our breaths on that front.